Topic: State of Kodak

[rattymouse]

A VERY in depth financial analysis on the health of Kodak.  Not pretty reading. 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4402061-another-short-squeeze-in-eastman-kodak-company

[Lee Rust]

Hi Ratty!

Good to see you here. As of mid-March, Kodak is still in operation.

Lee Rust

[Francois]

Big companies like that don't usually shut down very fast, which is a good thing for us.

[rattymouse]

Big companies like that don't usually shut down very fast, which is a good thing for us.

Kodak just reported earnings yesterday.  Heavy, heavy losses in all divisions.  Free cash flow dived.  No end in sight to all the bleeding that is going on at Kodak.   

After the report Kodak stock tanked hard, punishing investors. 

[02Pilot]

IMO, this is all quite meaningless. Stock prices these days are rarely reflective of the health of the company - witness Gamestop. Kodak dropped 11% a couple days ago, but then partially recovered, and the drop was largely based on investor speculation after it reported 2020 earnings. Yes, they dropped, but so did many companies in what was a far from normal year. They announced that they have $196 million in cash on had, and had secured access to additional capital - hardly doom and gloom. Hell, things have improved markedly since this time last year: Kodak closed today at 8.32, while a year ago it closed at 1.67. That's just shy of a 500% increase in share price YTD!

[rattymouse]

IMO, this is all quite meaningless. Stock prices these days are rarely reflective of the health of the company - witness Gamestop. Kodak dropped 11% a couple days ago, but then partially recovered, and the drop was largely based on investor speculation after it reported 2020 earnings. Yes, they dropped, but so did many companies in what was a far from normal year. They announced that they have $196 million in cash on had, and had secured access to additional capital - hardly doom and gloom. Hell, things have improved markedly since this time last year: Kodak closed today at 8.32, while a year ago it closed at 1.67. That's just shy of a 500% increase in share price YTD!

Kodak's cash burn has been relentless and non stop.  Heavy losses quarter after quarter will do that to your cash holdings.   The film division reported a loss, not a profit. All divisions, every one, reported steep losses. 

[02Pilot]

IMO, this is all quite meaningless. Stock prices these days are rarely reflective of the health of the company - witness Gamestop. Kodak dropped 11% a couple days ago, but then partially recovered, and the drop was largely based on investor speculation after it reported 2020 earnings. Yes, they dropped, but so did many companies in what was a far from normal year. They announced that they have $196 million in cash on had, and had secured access to additional capital - hardly doom and gloom. Hell, things have improved markedly since this time last year: Kodak closed today at 8.32, while a year ago it closed at 1.67. That's just shy of a 500% increase in share price YTD!

Kodak's cash burn has been relentless and non stop.  Heavy losses quarter after quarter will do that to your cash holdings.   The film division reported a loss, not a profit. All divisions, every one, reported steep losses.

I'm not questioning that. I'm suggesting that the stock price is not a useful way to gauge the financial state of a corporation, and that Kodak is hardly unique in seeing a significant decline in earnings in fiscal 2020.

[Francois]

Yeah, 2020 and 2021 will definitely be a litmus test for the economy, and Kodak is not immune to that.
Last year the only thing that kept stock markets from falling were the big five like Google, Apple, Facebook.
While things are not good by any stretch of the imagination, they're not good for anyone. So when everybody is in the same boat, there's no reason to worry.
When Covid starts going away, production and sales will go up.

Don't forget that Kodak has a lot of assets.

[rattymouse]

IMO, this is all quite meaningless. Stock prices these days are rarely reflective of the health of the company - witness Gamestop. Kodak dropped 11% a couple days ago, but then partially recovered, and the drop was largely based on investor speculation after it reported 2020 earnings. Yes, they dropped, but so did many companies in what was a far from normal year. They announced that they have $196 million in cash on had, and had secured access to additional capital - hardly doom and gloom. Hell, things have improved markedly since this time last year: Kodak closed today at 8.32, while a year ago it closed at 1.67. That's just shy of a 500% increase in share price YTD!

Kodak's cash burn has been relentless and non stop.  Heavy losses quarter after quarter will do that to your cash holdings.   The film division reported a loss, not a profit. All divisions, every one, reported steep losses.

I'm not questioning that. I'm suggesting that the stock price is not a useful way to gauge the financial state of a corporation, and that Kodak is hardly unique in seeing a significant decline in earnings in fiscal 2020.

You are correct that a stock price may not be a good way to judge a company's fiscal health.  But I'm not just using the stock price.   I've been following Kodak's financial reports for close to 10 years.  Since they have become a printing company they have produced almost no quarters of revenue growth and ZERO years of revenue growth.  Their cash holdings have decreased EVERY year.   Further, their stock popped for purely artificial reasons.  First, when "Kodak Coin" was announced, the stock popped up massively.  Of course, this initiative into blockchain was totally fraudulent and it never saw the light of day. (Neither has their new Super 8mm film movie camera ever been released, despite 5 years of work on it).  Also, the stock popped when it was announced that the feds were giving Kodak a huge grant to become a generic pharmaceutical company.  That has not happened and since then the stock has been drifting downward.  None of their financials indicate any type of health in the company.  All divisions have declining revenue and are losing money.

With regards to this forum's interest, the film "renaissance", if it exists, has completely skipped Kodak, as their film division's revenue is down and still losing money.

[rattymouse]

Yeah, 2020 and 2021 will definitely be a litmus test for the economy, and Kodak is not immune to that.
Last year the only thing that kept stock markets from falling were the big five like Google, Apple, Facebook.
While things are not good by any stretch of the imagination, they're not good for anyone. So when everybody is in the same boat, there's no reason to worry.
When Covid starts going away, production and sales will go up.

Don't forget that Kodak has a lot of assets.

Kodak has far fewer assets than they used to.  All their patents that could be sold, were sold.  Much of Kodak park has been demolished and sold off.  Kodak's brand generates very little cash in licensing.  Kodak's revenues were in decline long before COVID showed up.  Kodak's losses were increasing long before COVID showed up as well.

If one faces the facts and reality, Kodak's story is very similar to Sears, which was in long, terminal decline long before it finally died out.  Kodak has tried for many years to reinvent itself after its first bankruptcy.  It has not yet reached a state of profitability or attached a positive cash flow. 

This cannot go on forever.

[Francois]

I must admit that it feels like we're watching a disaster movie in slow motion...

[02Pilot]

It's alive now. Rather than telling anyone who will listen that the End is Nigh, go buy some film and shoot it. Unless you prefer predicting the apocalypse on the internet to photography.

[Francois]

I personally prefer feeding my optimistic side than the opposite. Too much bad news these days.

[rattymouse]

It's alive now. Rather than telling anyone who will listen that the End is Nigh, go buy some film and shoot it. Unless you prefer predicting the apocalypse on the internet to photography.

Preferences have nothing to do with it.  Fiscal reality doesnt care what I think.   

[rattymouse]

I personally prefer feeding my optimistic side than the opposite. Too much bad news these days.

That's exactly what Kodak's execs said when the film market collapsed the first time.  Just ignore reality and make happy talk.  Look how good that worked out. 

[02Pilot]

It's alive now. Rather than telling anyone who will listen that the End is Nigh, go buy some film and shoot it. Unless you prefer predicting the apocalypse on the internet to photography.

Preferences have nothing to do with it.  Fiscal reality doesnt care what I think.

Again, not questioning fiscal reality, but your decision to keep espousing your interpretation of it rather than discussing photography. I've spent enough time on this quite pointless discussion. Enjoy your apocalypse.

[Francois]

Oh! So now we know who's been hoarding those Kodak stocks!
I'm sorry but we can't help on that.
I guess you should ask WallstreetBets for help https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/

[rattymouse]

It's alive now. Rather than telling anyone who will listen that the End is Nigh, go buy some film and shoot it. Unless you prefer predicting the apocalypse on the internet to photography.

Preferences have nothing to do with it.  Fiscal reality doesnt care what I think.

Again, not questioning fiscal reality, but your decision to keep espousing your interpretation of it rather than discussing photography. I've spent enough time on this quite pointless discussion. Enjoy your apocalypse.

This thread is about the state of Kodak, the world's preeminent film maker.  It was YOUR choice to come in this thread.  Entering the thread and then complaining people are talking about on topic ideas is ridiculous in the extreme.  Just leave the thread if the topic is not to your liking.  FFS, grow up.

[rattymouse]

Oh! So now we know who's been hoarding those Kodak stocks!
I'm sorry but we can't help on that.
I guess you should ask WallstreetBets for help https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/

Talking to the degenerate gamblers in wallstreetbets is a pointless exercise.  I'll let you do that.

[Pete_R]

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Rattymouse added

[Francois]

Thanks for the tip Pete. Doing the same.

[John Robison]

Well, sad anyway to see ‘the great yellow father’ decline so much. Remember reading several years ago that when making movies started to move to digital that also impacted the sale of film. Film studios used just millions of feet to make and distribute movies around the world. Now most are all digital, both in production and distribution.
I wonder what it would cost to start up producing film from scratch? Must be in the millions of dollars. Even Film Ferrania, who started with equipment and raw materials has had a difficult time of it, and that is making only a B&W film at the moment.
Glad to see Ilford still in the market, and they seem to have reached equilibrium in being able to meet increasing film demand while making enough income to stay in business.

[rattymouse]

Well, sad anyway to see ‘the great yellow father’ decline so much. Remember reading several years ago that when making movies started to move to digital that also impacted the sale of film. Film studios used just millions of feet to make and distribute movies around the world. Now most are all digital, both in production and distribution.
I wonder what it would cost to start up producing film from scratch? Must be in the millions of dollars. Even Film Ferrania, who started with equipment and raw materials has had a difficult time of it, and that is making only a B&W film at the moment.
Glad to see Ilford still in the market, and they seem to have reached equilibrium in being able to meet increasing film demand while making enough income to stay in business.

For sure, Ilford is the future of film photography.  Fujifilm is on the way out and Kodak is swirling the drain.  Ilford seems strong and stable.

[rattymouse]

Kodak shares pounded VERY hard today in very heavy trading.  Not sure what spooked people but investors fled to the exits, crushing shares almost 5% down. 

[Lee Rust]

Where photographic products are concerned, I think the problem with Kodak is that they need to downsize to something more like Ilford if they really want to stay in that line of business for the long term. This would be a huge shift in corporate attitude for an outfit that was a giant worldwide operation less than 20 years ago, and it doesn't seem like Kodak has been that successful in making the transition.

Ilford also has the advantage of only making B&W emulsions. Color film is a fantastically complicated and tricky product to manufacture and it's really only economical to make on a massive scale. This was not a problem for Kodak (or Fuji) when the world took all its pictures on film. Now that color film is a niche product, the selling price has increased to the point where hardly anybody can afford to buy it. So the niche gets even smaller, and so does Kodak's stock market price.

[rattymouse]

Where photographic products are concerned, I think the problem with Kodak is that they need to downsize to something more like Ilford if they really want to stay in that line of business for the long term. This would be a huge shift in corporate attitude for an outfit that was a giant worldwide operation less than 20 years ago, and it doesn't seem like Kodak has been that successful in making the transition.

Ilford also has the advantage of only making B&W emulsions. Color film is a fantastically complicated and tricky product to manufacture and it's really only economical to make on a massive scale. This was not a problem for Kodak (or Fuji) when the world took all its pictures on film. Now that color film is a niche product, the selling price has increased to the point where hardly anybody can afford to buy it. So the niche gets even smaller, and so does Kodak's stock market price.

You are correct.  Kodak shares have been pounded hard yet again today as investors flee for the exits, down -4% today alone in very heavy trading.  Kodak has fallen over 16% in the past few weeks.   There is very little faith in the company on Wall Street.