Topic: Film shortage possibility

[Francois]

This week I was watching a video by a guy who does mostly instant photography (Just Another Chris) and he was very worried that the up and coming tariffs in the US could make the price of film increase quite a bit, especially since not much of the stuff is made in the country. So the next day I started to wonder how much film I had left in my bulk loaders. 400 ISO was getting pretty darn low, so I tried finding something cheap.
This is where I got a HUGE surprise.
I couldn't find a bulk load of anything other than HP5 in Montreal. All my usual spots were out of the 400 ISO stock.
I looked at Freestyle and a spool of Fomapan 400, with the exchange rate, duties and shipping, came well over 100$.
I eventually found some Ultrapan 400 (which is the same as Fomapan according to my research) at the Film Experience Camera Store in Longview, Alberta (they're the retail side of FlicFilm) for 86$CAD.

So, I think it would be wise for all American Filmwasters to do an inventory of what they have left in their freezer and put-in an order before January as we really are going to be stepping into the unknown.

If prices go up, we're screwed. If there is a shortage, we're doubly screwed.

[Pete_R]

With the orange fella in charge I think we're all screwed anyway. Price of film might be the least of our worries.

[Francois]

Pretty much what I'm thinking too.
But I try and at least get my stocks up, even if it's just something I do to keep my sanity!
I know it's going to sound crazy but every time something goes bad in the US, we feel the repercussions here in Canada.
We still have industries that struggle from the tariffs he imposed last time.
And it doesn't look like things are about to get any better.

[Kai-san]

I'm much more worried about the price of silver, which is a commodity of limited supply. Today there are 8 western banks that cooperate to keep the silver price artificially low while they stockpile it. When that price suppression cannot hold any longer there is going to be a huge jump in prices driven by the insane green agenda that requires huge amounts of silver for batteries, solar panels, wind turbines and so on. And yet the biggest consumer of silver is the weapons industry. When this price jump hits the film manufacturers, film could be the new gold.

[Francois]

And we all know that the military will go to any length to keep on producing.

[Mike (happyforest)]

….. And yet the biggest consumer of silver is the weapons industry

Obviously used in the never ending war against werewolves!

Sorry, I’ll shut the door on my way out!

Mike

[Bryan]

Interesting chart here on the year over year demand for silver.  https://silverinstitute.org/silver-supply-demand/

They have photography decreasing 2% to 3% year over year 2023 and 2024, a steady decline over the last 10 years.  I think the cost of silver has a small impact on film prices, there are other factors driving the price up far more than you could attribute to the price of silver.  The last time I bought a bulk roll of Tri-X in 2021 it was $100, now it costs about $190, a 90% increase!  In 2021 the price of silver was $25, today it's $31, that's a 25% increase.  I'm sure the price of silver had something to do with that but I remember reading a while back that the silver price has a small impact on the price of film.  Unfortunately some large users, electronics and weapons, are probably not going to see much recovery from recycling.  Once it's vaporized in a bomb it will never enter commerce again.  Electronics recycling at this point is a joke, that needs to improve. 

Since I'm running low on Tri-X I just ordered a bulk roll of HP5+ to replace it.  It's a lot cheaper than Tri-X plus it works better with my beer developer.  Also ordered a roll of FP4+.  I should be good for a while. 

Interesting thing about silver is the demand for it in Silverware.  That chart I linked shows the demand for silver in silverware is flat over the last 10 years.  Young people getting married these days don't get fine china and silver flatware like was popular decades ago.  They don't even want to inherit that stuff from their parents.  A lot of that silver is probably going to recycling.  When I got married, almost 30 years ago, we didn't get silver flatware.  My wife did inherit some but it rarely gets used.  Maybe I can convince her to cash it in to buy more film 

[Francois]

Thing is, every metal used in film production is currently seeing a price increase.
Platinum is on the rise
https://ycharts.com/indicators/platinum_price

Palladium is on the rise
https://ycharts.com/indicators/palladium_spot_price

Rhodium is slowly dropping, but it's still over 4000$ an oz.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/rhodium

While all these things are used in minute quantities they still are necessary, especially for high ISO film (from what I can tell).

I just found the patent for Tabular Grain emulsion... now I know why fast modern films are expensive
https://patents.google.com/patent/EP0263507B1/en

Here's an exert from the patent

The emulsion containing tabular grains prepared according to this invention is generally fully dispersed and bulked up with gelatin or other dispersion of peptizer described above and subjected to any of the known methods for achieving optimum sensitivity. Preferably optimum chemical sensitization is achieved by the addition of sulfur and gold. Other sensitizers include: selenium, tellurium, platinum, palladium, iridium, osmium, rhodium, rhenium or phosphorous sensitizers or combinations thereof, used at 10-a to 10-10 N silver (pAg 8 to 10), pH of 6.0 to 7.0 and temperatures from 50 to 60°C. Chemical sensitization can occur in the presence of modifiers, e.g., compounds known to suppress fog and increase speed when present during chemical sensitization, such as azaindenes, azapyridazines, azapyrimidines, benzothiazolium salts, and sensitizers having one or more heterocyclic nuclei.

Just imagine adding a greater tariff to all of those... it goes fast.

[astrobeck]

I hope there's no shortage...ever. Well for at least the next 30 years of so.
I'm going to take Bryan's lead though and buy a couple rolls of bulk to stock up and I'll be set for a while.

[Francois]

I hope there's no shortage...ever. Well for at least the next 30 years of so.
I'm going to take Bryan's lead though and buy a couple rolls of bulk to stock up and I'll be set for a while.

I think it's a wise decision.
In my case, the worst that can now happen is that I'm stuck shooting 400 ISO... not really that much of a problem.

[irv_b]

https://kosmofoto.com/2024/11/kodak-alaris-announces-price-rises-for-january-2025-but-tri-x-is-getting-cheaper/

I like the bit where he says "Film shooters should note that the price rises are wholesale increases, and retail price rises may not always reflect these changes." like that's will happen

[Francois]

I also really doubt that wholesalers will cut in their profits...
If it was just an increased MSRP, I would think it's not important. But anything other than that...